Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 60471.949291 63995.955563 67524.138879 71318.789733 75281.842743 79295.874268 83666.095040
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 54645.669410 60007.582933 65530.831178 71636.688417 78188.581994 84999.142419 92604.888003
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 50344.978873 56930.426593 63867.913805 71702.985627 80287.351871 89388.262752 99747.730978
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 47206.573787 54714.198215 62772.892087 72036.812669 82361.452772 93483.993509 106340.826224
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 44482.997321 52696.675722 61660.313256 72125.323120 83962.590719 96891.569366 112034.147397
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 42792.089583 51682.225420 61526.357684 73175.856993 86523.265247 101275.711532 118749.382098
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 40650.349891 50009.479149 60517.434073 73112.428483 87718.158695 104041.129831 123577.834639
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 39444.571800 49335.834865 60579.569169 74210.360686 90186.442117 108215.367989 129991.595220
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 38160.591471 48491.149734 60373.589751 74934.482262 92172.789591 111804.339463 135719.013832
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 36602.711139 47241.452457 59620.774358 74950.568739 93276.721597 114331.760116 140191.322803
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 35100.395487 45990.429251 58804.396409 74833.020749 94173.560719 116580.815292 144315.238511
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 34286.404006 45539.876815 58915.318799 75797.979587 96338.694256 120314.074910 150193.678970
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 33390.272300 44962.894922 58857.452327 76554.496459 98264.746348 123792.958469 155824.348570
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 32362.674115 44181.612069 58515.659727 76936.836294 99720.693576 126706.603159 160793.012107
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 31254.992684 43255.726358 57956.383324 77016.485320 100780.401682 129127.863022 165167.085189
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 30346.784797 42549.668345 57640.814626 77371.869715 102159.248759 131925.844067 170000.058139
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 29373.001613 41722.598508 57140.225642 77465.978945 103191.642813 134288.399386 174301.447187
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 28912.221028 41546.697308 57453.218366 78578.176052 105492.053094 138213.521929 180537.588484
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 27961.515022 40690.186839 56862.226643 78511.051884 106288.643362 140270.158588 184470.396216
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 27586.498128 40586.407949 57234.197467 79673.164025 108640.724692 144266.786484 190828.092724
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 27066.438368 40267.622308 57309.494994 80439.505798 110483.420159 147631.235601 196414.707523
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 26265.582064 39541.139117 56825.362128 80456.529384 111350.508773 149763.907907 200462.801893
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 25445.870465 38763.301167 56249.834253 80332.133892 112018.261977 151635.194791 204181.367520